Niagen Bioscience, Inc. (NASDAQ:NAGE), formerly known as ChromaDex, is a science-driven company at the forefront of the healthy aging and cellular wellness market. Headquartered in Los Angeles, California, Niagen has built its reputation around the development, commercialization, and clinical validation of nicotinamide riboside (NR), marketed as Niagen®, a patented precursor to nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+). NAD+ is an essential coenzyme that fuels cellular energy production and metabolism, and its decline with age has been linked to loss of vitality, increased susceptibility to disease, and accelerated aging. By focusing on NAD+ replenishment, Niagen has positioned itself at the intersection of dietary supplements, clinical science, and longevity-focused healthcare.
The company’s flagship consumer brand, Tru Niagen®, has become a global leader in the NAD+ supplementation market, with products distributed online and through retail and healthcare practitioner channels. Tru Niagen is supported by over two decades of scientific research, more than 300 published scientific studies, and endorsements from leading researchers in the fields of metabolism and aging. It is marketed not only as a lifestyle supplement for energy and vitality but also as an evidence-based solution for consumers seeking scientifically validated products in the expanding wellness sector. Alongside consumer sales, Niagen Bioscience has also built a growing ingredient business, supplying its proprietary Niagen® compound to manufacturers for use in other nutrition and wellness products, while maintaining a smaller segment focused on analytical reference standards and testing services to support quality control in dietary and botanical products.
Beyond its supplement business, Niagen has extended its reach into pharmaceutical and clinical applications. The company has partnered with Haukeland University Hospital in Norway to pursue the potential of Niagen as a therapy for Parkinson’s disease, leveraging data from the large Phase III NOPARK clinical trial. The company has also sponsored and participated in clinical studies addressing rare disorders such as Werner syndrome, where its products have demonstrated measurable impacts on NAD+ levels and related health markers. By bridging consumer health products with therapeutic development, Niagen is differentiating itself from many competitors in the supplement industry that lack clinical rigor.
Financially, Niagen Bioscience has demonstrated impressive momentum. In its second quarter of 2025, the company reported $31.1 million in net sales, representing 37% year-over-year growth, while achieving gross margins of 65%. Net income came in at $3.6 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, exceeding analyst expectations. The company ended the quarter with a robust $60.5 million in cash and remains debt-free, giving it a clean balance sheet and flexibility to reinvest in growth initiatives. Importantly, its high-quality earnings are underscored by positive operating cash flow that has consistently exceeded net income, showing strong underlying fundamentals.
Despite these achievements, Niagen’s history of equity dilution remains a critical factor for investors to consider. Since 2016, shares outstanding have risen by nearly 47.5%, with another 14.2% potential dilution from outstanding equity awards still in play. While the company’s strengthening earnings profile helps offset some of the negative impact, the dilution has pressured intrinsic value per share. A discounted cash flow analysis suggests an intrinsic value closer to $4.04 per share, far below the company’s current trading levels, reflecting that much of the growth story may already be priced in.
Still, the long-term potential for Niagen Bioscience cannot be ignored. With Tru Niagen firmly established as a leader in the NAD+ category, an expanding footprint in clinical and pharmaceutical applications, and a clean balance sheet that provides flexibility for continued innovation, the company remains an intriguing player in the longevity and wellness markets. The rise of consumer awareness around cellular health, coupled with growing demand for scientifically validated products, provides a favorable tailwind for Niagen’s growth. For investors, the story is complex: the company offers a unique position in one of the fastest-growing segments of the healthcare industry, but its stock valuation and dilution history warrant caution.
A Personal Connection Highlights Stock Performance
I have a personal stake in this analysis beyond financial metrics. I have been taking Tru Niagen since 2022, believing in its benefits for longevity and cellular vitality. It was only recently, after receiving a new shipment, that I noticed the packaging indicated ChromaDex, now Niagen Bioscience, is publicly traded. To my shock, since I began taking the product, the stock has soared by over 503% in just three years. While this meteoric rise underscores the market enthusiasm around NAD+ science and supplements, it also raises questions about whether the stock is priced too far ahead of its fundamentals.
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Breaking Down Revenue Segments
According to Niagen Bioscience’s most recent 10-K filing, the company’s revenue is spread across three main segments. In 2024, 77.08% of net sales came from consumer products, mainly Tru Niagen dietary supplements and NAD+ test kits for healthcare practitioners. The ingredients segment contributed 19.90%, focused on developing proprietary food-grade and pharmaceutical-grade Niagen supplied as raw materials to other manufacturers. The final 3.02% came from analytical reference standards and services, providing plant-based compounds for quality testing in supplements and herbal products.
The heavy reliance on consumer products — over three-quarters of total revenue — makes it clear that the company’s future is tightly linked to the success of Tru Niagen. This dependence carries risk, but it also shows the scale of opportunity if Tru Niagen continues to grow as an anti-aging and NAD+ restoration solution.
NAD+ Science and the Value Proposition of Tru Niagen
NAD+ (nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide) is an essential coenzyme in cellular energy production, critical for metabolism and overall cellular function. Without NAD+, the human body would cease functioning within minutes. As we age, NAD+ levels decline dramatically, with studies showing a 65% drop between ages 30 and 70. Tru Niagen is designed to replenish NAD+ levels, potentially restoring them closer to youthful levels.
The anti-aging field has drawn attention from world-renowned researchers, such as Dr. David Sinclair of Harvard Medical School, who has highlighted NAD+ as a central factor in longevity science. This growing recognition provides validation for Niagen Bioscience’s core product strategy, situating Tru Niagen within the broader market of wellness and longevity therapeutics.
A Strong Balance Sheet and High-Quality Earnings
From a financial perspective, Niagen Bioscience is in enviable shape. Its latest 10-Q, filed August 6, 2025, reveals a debt-free balance sheet. About 77% of equity is tied to assets, and of those assets, 66% are cash and cash equivalents. This results in a substantial cash reserve of $60.5 million, giving the company the flexibility to fund growth without resorting to debt financing.
Another highlight is the quality of earnings. The company generated 41% more in cash from operations than its reported net income in fiscal year 2024, an indicator of strong underlying cash conversion. For investors, this means that earnings are not just paper profits but are backed by real operating cash flow.
The Persistent Issue of Dilution
Despite the strong balance sheet and earnings, dilution remains a major red flag. Since 2016, the number of shares outstanding has increased by 47.53%, rising from just under 38 million to nearly 80 million as of August 2025. Future dilution potential is also significant, with 14.2% of additional shares possible from equity awards, options, and restricted stock units.
This steady dilution acts like inflation for shareholders — even as the company grows, the per-share value is eroded. For a long-term investor, dilution raises the cost of ownership and reduces intrinsic value.
Strong Q2 Earnings Show Operational Momentum
Despite dilution concerns, Niagen’s Q2 2025 results underscore operational strength. The company reported EPS of $0.04, beating estimates by $0.03. Revenue came in at $31.12 million, representing 37.1% year-over-year growth and beating forecasts by nearly $2.8 million. Gross profit rose 5% year-over-year, supported by improved margins.
Cash flow was again a bright spot, with net income for the first half of 2025 already surpassing the company’s total annual net income for all of 2024. Year-to-date operating cash flow reached $9.1 million, highlighting ongoing financial discipline.
A Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Suggests Overvaluation
To better assess valuation, a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis was performed. Using a base year FCFE (free cash flow to equity) of $9.29 million, a growth rate of 18.55%, and a cost of equity of 8.65%, projected cash flows for the next five years and a terminal value were calculated. The result was an equity value of $322.65 million, translating to an intrinsic value per share of $4.04.
At current trading levels, this suggests the stock is priced at approximately 133% above intrinsic value. Even under optimistic scenarios, where shares were hypothetically reduced by half through buybacks, the intrinsic value would still fall short of current market pricing. This underscores the concern that enthusiasm and momentum may have inflated the stock beyond fundamental worth.
Conclusion: A Balanced View — Great Company, Stretched Valuation
Niagen Bioscience is a company with enviable fundamentals: no debt, a strong cash position, positive operating cash flow, and a flagship product supported by compelling science. Tru Niagen continues to benefit from growing consumer and scientific interest in NAD+ replenishment, and the company’s financial results point toward strong execution and scalability.
However, persistent dilution and an overextended valuation weigh heavily on the stock. While earnings momentum has softened the impact of dilution, the discounted cash flow model shows that current prices are difficult to justify fundamentally. For these reasons, Niagen Bioscience earns a Hold rating. It is a business worth admiring and possibly revisiting at lower price levels, but the current valuation leaves little margin of safety.
For investors, the paradox is clear: the company is thriving, its science is credible, and its market opportunity is real, yet the stock appears ahead of itself. Until the dilution issue is addressed or earnings grow substantially beyond current projections, caution remains warranted.
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